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Prediction for CME (2025-06-08T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-08T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39316/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The source is likely related to a large dimming region centered near N10E40 which begins to appear around 2025-06-08T01:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. Possible arrival signature starting around 2025-06-12T19:30Z: a likely signature of a flux rope, characterized by the lowering of ion density and temperature, and by the smooth velocity decrease, as well as by smooth rotation of magnetic field components. It is following the coronal hole high speed stream which started around 2025-06-11T11:25Z
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-12T19:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-14T12:28Z (-18.44h, +17.47h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2025/06/08 02:00Z
Plane of Sky 1: 20:00Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 05:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
POS Difference: 9:00
POS Midpoint: 00:30Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 22:30

Numeric View/Impact Type: +1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.86
Travel Time: ~6.86 * 22:30 = 154:28

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-06-14T12:28Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/06/09 01:29Z
Lead Time: 89.93 hour(s)
Difference: -40.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-06-09T01:34Z
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